Ever heard of “predictive fishing”? I’m not surprised if you haven’t because very few anglers have, nor do many practice the art. What is “predictive fishing” then?

Predictive fishing is having the ability to read the conditions and circumstances at any given time and using this knowledge make the best possible decision as to the mark or tide they intend to fish, or the species they intend to target. Get the choices right and your percentage of fish caught will go through the roof.

Reading posts on forum boards, chatting to anglers on the beach, and from the correspondence I get from anglers I can see that most tend to fish solely by chance, usually picking a favourite mark that produced a good fish or catch in the past for them, asking other anglers how the fishing is, or more usually by the close proximity of the car park.

None of the above options are good. Marks tend to be seasonal in how they fish, so fishing the same marks all year round means 75% of the time you’ll be disappointed. Relying on others to tell you how the fishing is, means you’ll be at best two or three days late fishing the venue with a good chance the fish will have moved on. Fishing by the car is easy, too easy, and rarely puts you on the right feature that will hold fish.

More experienced anglers have a much more clinical approach to fishing and that’s why it’s called “predictive fishing” because they use past experience, and any other form of information they can gather, to accurately predict the best place to be and the best species to target.

Here’s a few examples of predictive fishing.

By Mid March many anglers get excited about bassing. The usual quote is that somebody’s mate found a peeler crab so the bass must be in. What actually happens is that the bass do not move in to the estuaries and rough ground until there are real numbers of peelers popping. The bass usually show about two weeks AFTER you can pick enough to fish with. The reason is that the bass, like us, needs to eat fairly regularly and being rightly reluctant to starve will stay offshore until its instincts tell it that enough crab will be on the inshore ground and peeling to give a guaranteed food supply. Wait until the numbers of crab are easy to pick, then fish!

Take small schoolies out of the equation and the likelihood that big bass will run the surf beaches in March and April is highly unlikely. Again, on the sand, there is not enough food to feed the fish in the early spring period. Any early season bass will be on the rough ground where the crabs have the geography to hide during the peeling process and the fish can grub the vulnerable ones out. Leave the beaches until late May and stick to the rough ground early in the season.

Think thornback rays. Thornbacks, especially in shallow clear water, tend to stay out of casting range by day when light levels penetrate the water column to a good depth. Catching rays in these conditions is difficult. Time your session to start when the sun is beginning to drop deep in the sky with the light angle is less vertical and the rays start to work inshore. Coincide this with a low water and imminent darkness and you give yourself the very best chance of catching rays onwards in to darkness. Alternatively choose an overcast day with drizzle and the chance of daylight rays are then much improved. Consider this the next time you want rays before committing to that species.

The phrase “surf” beach tells it all. For the most part, never choose to fish a surf beach unless the wind is coming from an onshore direction. This creates the surf and the surf action will disturb food from the sand. Fish know this and move in to feed. That said you need to then fish specifically for the species that are likely to work in these conditions, typically bass and flounder with an outside chance of a ray at range and codling in the winter. Whiting and dabs on the other hand prefer calmer seas and are unlikely to be a viable target in a big surf.

This goes much further with the weather forecast often providing the best information for predictive fishing. Watch for the low pressure systems coming across the Atlantic from North America. As these approach the UK coast the swell from the storm will manifest itself on our beaches 24 to 48 hours before the actual wind arrives. The swell and rising surf, especially after a period of really calm weather, can produce excellent fishing for all manner of species, especially bass and cod.

When the real front of the storm hits the coast, often the seas are too big to fish, but watch the pressure system as it travels over us. Maybe the eye of the storm will give you a full tide in time when the sea is huge but the wind virtually non-existent. Again anglers who can predict this short calm spell can make a big catch.

Also as the storm passes out towards Europe the winds and seas ease, but the seas are full of washed out food and species such as bass, flounders, cod, whiting, rays etc, move back in to the surf to feed. Again big catches can be made at this time.

Estuary anglers also know that in early summer when you get a good flush of flood water after a summer downpour the muddied water is just perfect for a big bag of eels that run the creek channels. Flounders don’t like this coloured water, but will feed again as it starts to clear and the eels move elsewhere.

Never ignore the natural signs either for Mother Nature always gives us a hint of what’s to come if you can read those signs.

Most anglers won’t have noticed that the first plaice always seem to show almost exactly at the time the Blackthorn bush flowers. Blackthorn heralds the start of the first spell of decent weather after the winter. The Hawthorn buds also show improving air temperatures. Watch for the Lilac trees getting ready to blossom. As the lilac begins to flower the first big peel of shore crab occurs and the bass will be right behind them.

Many of these observations have been saved as phrases from country people who used rhymes to remind future generations. “When the corn is on the crock, the fish are on the rock” is totally accurate and refers to the corn being ripe and gathered in by early September when the big pollack just happen to move back inshore to feed up prior to winter. How many anglers are left who know this, not many!

Just a few examples then of predictive fishing! It’s a secret experienced anglers take for granted, yet many others never realise its importance and the massive beneficial effect it has on increasing your catches.

So how do you get to be a “predictive” angler? Easy really, fish and read a lot and store the information.

Really keen anglers always keep a diary of their venues, catches, wind direction, tides, baits and air temperature amongst others. Put all this together and read it regularly and you’ll see patterns. It becomes instinctive after a few years that you’ll know exactly when conditions are right for certain species of fish to appear on certain marks. The act of writing things down makes you remember more clearly. You can also do this by saving a file on your computer with your catch reports from the areas you fish that are reported on the forum boards and in the press. This is a massive aid to predictive fishing.

Predicting the future is easy, it’s based in past fact!