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Not done a forecast for a few weeks now, sorry about that, just been too busy to put finger to keypad!

You may remember that in my last forecast (8th Nov) I hinted that the weather would remain mobile ( westerly, windy, rainy) for a few weeks before a change to blocked, colder weather arrives.
Well I’m quite pleased with that forecast really as you may have noticed that it’s suddenly turned a lot colder out there this week. This is due to high pressure out in the Atlantic forcing northerly winds that bring air from out of Scandi and over to us. The atmosphere though seems to be resisting the blocking scenario for now though and we are left with a sort of halfway house, with winds from the NW rather than a straight northerly of northeasterly.
So, looking at the next 24-48 hrs it will be cold, pretty slack airflow from the NW which will strengthen somewhat on Saturday.
Sunday will see a brief change with winds going southerly which may strengthen somewhat as they turn SW on Monday as low pressure approaches from the NW. The depth and position of this low is not nailed down as yet but it will turn briefly milder in this period with some rain.

Following this we will probably see winds from the NW and a return to cooler conditions again going into Tuesday/ Wed.

After this, well, models are really struggling right now, longer term there is still a strong signal for high pressure to our north and low pressure over Europe, this would deliver a raw easterly bringing snow and frost. At the same time though there are indications that the Atlantic train of our usual weather will not give up without a fight! Most likely then in my own opinion is that we will be in the middle somewhere with incursions of cold from the NE battling with warmer air from the SW. Both airmasses waxing and waning for a time before one will eventually win out.
This can produce some heavy snow for northern areas if the synoptics are just right with low pressure sliding under colder air and this is a distinct possibility but for our region it most often produces cold rain and general unpleasantness! Longer term my money is on the cold air to win out eventually, maybe by the middle of Dec.

Disclaimer:
I am an amateur forecaster and these forecasts are offered as a guide only as to what MAY be expected. Please, if you plan on fishing, especially afloat then you should check the professional forecasts for your local conditions before setting out
 
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