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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I’m going to do my weather analysis a day early this week, mainly because it is unlikely that I will get time tomorrow but also because there have been some fascinating developments this week that I can’t wait to share!
We are now pretty much mid autumn with the equinox just behind us. Usually the pattern which predominates at this time of the year is an increase in Atlantic storms and a strengthening of the jetstream. But why does this happen? Well, in a nutshell, and restraining my geeky side which wants to get too technical, it’s all to do with the temperature differences between the rapidly cooling polar regions and residual summer warmth at lower latitudes. This temperature difference causes large areas of low pressure, usually centered around Iceland and smaller low pressure systems are spawned around this low which crash into our western shores.
The picture below roughly shows what I’m talking about:

World Organism Map Rectangle Line


The blue colours at the top of the picture represent cooler temperatures in the upper atmosphere and correlate to low pressure, the yellows and reds are warmer air and correlate to high pressure.

This year it’s all very different, the reason for our predominantly wet summer is that we have had a jetstream which has moved much further south than it usually does, so instead of the low pressures moving NW of the Uk they have tended to move across southern England, producing more rain.

Just this week, we have seen a very strange development. High pressure is developing to the north of the UK causing a blocking pattern, in winter this would increase our chances of cold weather producing icy blasts from the NE but in the autumn we have that overactive Jetstream to contend with.
The net result of this high pressure blocking at this time of year is that the Jetstream is again diverted southwards and compressed, making the storms approaching from the west take a much more southerly track, this produces more rain and potentially more wind for our neck of the woods.

This is the chart for next week, subject to change but broadly there is model agreement on the pattern, note the yellows to the north of the UK streching into Greenland:

Ecoregion Rectangle Map World Orange


SO what does this mean for our fishing?

We have some really big tides next week, this combined with gales means we have a really good prospect of Cod moving inshore to mop up all those displaced lugworm and shellfish. Plenty of reports of fish off the boats so we can be fairly confident that prospects are good. The weather could be pretty wild at times, so finding a window to fish in is going to be the big issue.
The models are showing a strong signal for disturbed potentially very windy weather Tuesday – Thursday. At the moment 2 waves of increased wind look likely, the first arriving Mon night into Tuesday, the second, potentially more violent winds occurring Wednesday morning into Thursday. A very brief weather window exists in between. Keep an eye on the forecast and look for that window!

One word of warning, high winds, high tides and saturated ground could mean a high risk of flooding. If you insist on fishing in a gale, then be carefull, stand well back from the waters edge and watch the sea at all times for rogue waves.

I will update this thread with how things are looking, I've got the week off so I intend to fill my boots!! (probably with shingle and floodwater).
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Very interesting Mr Shorething. SW gales...OH happy days!
Thanks, yes it's in stark contrast to last year when gales were few and far between, especially once we got to November. We had weeks and weeks of light southerly winds which meant Bass catches continued until xmas but it was rubbish for the cod fishing.
 

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Great report shorething, it was meteorically fascinating with an optimistic fishing forecast thrown in with a word or two of caution !! I have witnessed a pair of rogue waves and i dont want to see any more !
 
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