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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Well, the cold weather I hinted at last week is currently going as I expected with the bulk of the cold going east of the UK. Saying that though it will be cold with overnight frosts likely.
The high pressure which has been lurking out to out west all week is moving away NW towards southern Greenland, opening the doors to colder air and taking it’s mist and murk with it.

A cold front will pass over our region on Friday/ Saturday and winds will be strong and northerly. This should introduce some colour to NE facing coasts and this is the place to head to for the greatest chances of a good fish!

A ridge of high pressure will extend over the country on Sun giving lighter winds a bright, cold conditions at first, maybe frosty, things will turn increasingly cloudy and wet though.

On Monday winds will swing around from NW to SW and freshen as low pressure moves south over the country. Rain will clear slowly but pressure is set to fall again and a deeper area moves south to replace the earlier low.

Wednesday and Thursday are most likely to be wet and windy. Winds from the SW so perfect again for bringing in those cod!

After this we get into that grey area of longer range but what looks likely is a return to a more mobile, westerly wind pattern with alternative highs and lows as high pressure over Greenland moves west over NE Canada. However models this morning are hinting at pressure rises to our north and east which would stall any low pressure systems and leave us under cool, windy and wet conditions. Hurricane Sandy currently affecting the Caribbean is expected to travel up the eastern seaboard of the USA but is not expected to affect us at this time.
All in all pretty good prospects for us shore fishermen with tides expected to build throughout next week.
 

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Thanks shorething great post.:thumbs:
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Well with things looking lively here this week I thought I would post a quick update.

It looks likely that low pressure that will introduce a SW wind this Thursday may spawn a secondary low which may have a bit more 'zip' in it!

Ecoregion Line Colorfulness Geology Map


Text Map Ecoregion Organism World


The MET office are not making much of it at the moment, probably because the forecast track of this system is far from nailed down. If it tracks further south or north than currently forecast it won't amount to much but there is potential for some damaging gusts from this type of storm so stay tuned!

Low pressure is set to hang around so a window in the weather to fish will be hard to find, looking like Friday night though at the moment for the best chances! I will update further as things progress.

Sorry for the small size of the charts, will try to post bigger ones!
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Doh!
Just seen this statement from the MET via Ian Fergusson from BBC weather...

"Given support and broad agreement now between UKMO-GM, EC & ARPEGE (albeit the latter with more complex low, structurally), UKMO consider the GFS solution re this deep S England low development as unlikely. Hence our briefings this morning are to emphasize forecast change to the story in this respect over past 24hrs, with just small potential for the GFS solution to be manifested Fri-Sat. We shall see... "

Basically translated this means that the MET don't think it's gonna happen. which is probably a good thing!
 

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No, I used more words. Plus I'm explaining the dynamics behind the forecast.

I know you think this exercise is a waste of time Yakker, we went through all this on my first effort, would you be happier if I put a link to xcweather on my post every week?
Wouldn't mind if you were accurate, lets hope nobody puts to sea on your forecasts.
Quote. 'On Monday winds will swing around from NW to SW and freshen as low pressure moves south over the country. Rain will clear slowly but pressure is set to fall again and a deeper area moves south to replace the earlier low.' Unquote.
Not true, on Tuesday, the winds were very gentle and NW to West later. The day was calm and sunny, not what you said at all.
I would leave it to the experts, that way, nobody will drown.
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Wouldn't mind if you were accurate, lets hope nobody puts to sea on your forecasts.
Quote. 'On Monday winds will swing around from NW to SW and freshen as low pressure moves south over the country. Rain will clear slowly but pressure is set to fall again and a deeper area moves south to replace the earlier low.' Unquote.
Not true, on Tuesday, the winds were very gentle and NW to West later. The day was calm and sunny, not what you said at all.
I would leave it to the experts, that way, nobody will drown.
Now that's the sort of comment I can get on board with!

Much better than:

which is confrontational, antagonistic and unnecessary.

I can take criticism as well as the next person but only if it’s presented so that I can see what your point is and where I’m going wrong. So thank you for finally going to the trouble of making your point!

In my defense I can only go by what charts are indicating on my forecast and I think most of them agreed on the high pressure ridge moving off a lot quicker than was indicated. From Thursday to Monday is a fairly long stretch in forecasting terms and I wouldn’t be the first forecaster to get things wrong at that range. Perhaps you could tell me what a xcweather was saying at that range? I would genuinely like to know as if it was vastly different from what I was saying then it would indicate a stupid mistake on my part! I can learn from that!

Saying that though I take your point very seriously about people going to sea on the basis of my forecast. I would hope that people who go out in boats would have the good sense to check the forecast from an official source before setting out, rather than on my 3 day old ramblings alone! However, to remove myself of that responsibility. I will post a disclaimer on every forecast I do from now on.

Such as:

I am an amateur forecaster and these forecasts are offered as a guide only as to what MAY be expected in the following week. Please, if you plan on fishing, especially afloat then you should check the professional forecasts for your local conditions before setting out.

Finally, what I am trying to do with these forecasts, and obviously failing so far, is to give a guide to the general synoptic conditions expected in the following week and give some insight to what is going on up there whilst offering advice on how this may or may not affect the fishing. I’m no expert on either, just offering my opinions so I welcome anyone who wishes to add there 2 pence worth to the thread as this can only help the majority, even if it’s to tell me where I’m going wrong!

My experience is only of a few marks in Kent and I'm sure there are a lot more folks out there who know far better than me what conditions favour each beach.
 

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Wouldn't mind if you were accurate, lets hope nobody puts to sea on your forecasts.
Quote. 'On Monday winds will swing around from NW to SW and freshen as low pressure moves south over the country. Rain will clear slowly but pressure is set to fall again and a deeper area moves south to replace the earlier low.' Unquote.
Not true, on Tuesday, the winds were very gentle and NW to West later. The day was calm and sunny, not what you said at all.
I would leave it to the experts, that way, nobody will drown.

I enjoy looking at forecasts to see whats happening and i enjoy reading shorethings posts while i also look at other forecasts that maybe are more accurate but as shorething says forecast do and will change sometimes even day by day but he posts to give a over veiw of what might happen to give people a heads up and to plan ahead but your comment about hope nobody goes to sea on your forecast is stupid 100% of people with boats look at shipping forecasts not on a fishing forum so my advice to you is dont reply to his threads if you are not interested in fact why even bother to read them.

Paul
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
The nasty little low I was talking about yesterday is the way MET office expected with most of the energy directed at France so Friday is looking much better at the moment.
However. We do have a nasty little cold front crossing the country today which will reach our region overnight and be lingering tomorrow morning. This front will bring heavy rain and winds with gust that may exceed 60 mph in exposed areas. Conditions behind the front will be squally with heavy showers and gusty winds. Conditions may moderate slightly Thursday night but chances are it will remain unpleasant for those braving the beaches!
At the moment Friday evening looks slightly better.

Disclaimer

I am an amateur forecaster and these forecasts are offered as a guide only as to what MAY be expected. Please, if you plan on fishing, especially afloat then you should check the professional forecasts for your local conditions before setting out.
 
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