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Saying that there are less mackerel because they have moved further north is simply untrue. There are less mackerel because there are less mackerel.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/15/tuna-and-mackerel-populations-suffer-catastrophic-74-decline-research-shows
So you will believe the scientific studies by one group who have vested interests in making people stop fishing but not believe the ICES reports?
They seem to believe its moving north in Iceland.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heatwave-iceland-fish/feature-iceland-reaps-riches-from-warming-oceans-as-fish-swim-north-idUSKCN1BW02T

https://fiskerforum.com/mackerel-moving-fast-2/
 

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Saying that there are less mackerel because they have moved further north is simply untrue. There are less mackerel because there are less mackerel.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/15/tuna-and-mackerel-populations-suffer-catastrophic-74-decline-research-shows
Your article in the Gaurdian... note written and edited by a journalist not a scientist states half way doen that overfishing is not the only reason, and that it is nuanced, and also lists climate change as a reason.
Fish swim in the sea. Very few species stick to an area and only that area for their whole lives.
Fish migrate. Even without the use of scientific evidence to prove the point, it is entirely reasonable to understand that fish, just like us will move to areas that suit the regulation of their body the best.
I spent the whole day yesterday in my car. With its aircon. It was far too hot for me to not have it on. In december i wont have it on as its too cold. My happy temperature is 21°C. I will actively seek out a shady spot to park the car when shopping so it doesnt get too hot, and actively seeknout the shade when not in the car so i dont overheat.
Whilst i appreciate a fish doesnt carry around air conditioning, or more aptly water cooling, why is it so hard to aknowledge a fish will seek out colder water if the water temperature rises?!
the fact is i try to make my environment as comfortable as i can for my temperature comfort level. Every other mobile organism will naturally do the same.
It's quite impressive that off the back of the word 'science' bracketed Lady Half Pint can without any hesitation decide what my views are on global warming?..
My observation on Cod were from the Grand Banks which unequivocally were commercially fished out and half a century later have not recovered.
My view on the original post have not wavered.. large scale commercial overfishing has damaged Mackerel stocks.
As ive said Wayne. I havent decided what your views on global warming are. Ive been quite clear my beef was with your use of the woed "science" in brackets. Why you seem to beleive that from what ive written doesnt make sense. The only thing i have assumed, is that you liken scientists to lefties, generally because those that enjoy science bashing seem to use that as a badly forged weapon to make their point. I have not even hinted you are a climate denier, or a clumate beleiver for that matter. What i have stated us you are cherry picking evidence to suit your own opinion, and ignoring everything else, or by using "science" like that seeking to minimise valid science for a very narrow view of an issue. You either accept science and scientific evidence, or you dont. Cherry picking misleads people and invariably causes issues down the line. Are you purposely trying to muslead people or get people to mistrust proven acientific evidence collected and reported en masse for the past 200 odd years? Why? What do you gain from it?
You seem to be under the illusion that overfishing and other factors for stock decline cannot co-exist in the scientific world or as valid evidence. I am asking WHY and HOW youve come to that conclusion.

Show me a scientific paper that has been peer reviewed, not pseudo science that states grand banks cod were NOT overfished.
Show me a scientific paper that states mackerel havent been affected by overfishing.
Then look to see the amount of papers that also state other reasons for the decline.

A fisheries scientist who looks at the impacts of climate change on fish, has specialised in that niche.
A fisheries scientist who looks at over fishing has specialised in THAT niche.
Etc etc
The two co- exist. They dont cancel eachother out.
You even have review papers that bring all of these views together as one coherent review of many well established well researched scientific studies.

Yes. As a scientist the use of brackets for the word science has p155ed me off.
You are fed up with scientists stating facts?
Guess what. Scientists are fed up with non scientists twisting or cherry picking information to fulfill an arguement that has been fuelled for someones agenda or to villify others.

who wins from those in power only looking at overfishing? Big money.
who also wins? Polluting companies who are major contirbutors (oil gas, coal) to global warming and the decline of our planet.

Who wins from scientists being taken literally as a whole? Every single person on the planet. But in a way that you wont neccessarily be aware of, because that benefit is a better food supply, and air to breathe amongst many many over things.
Scientists arent paid big bucks. They dont stand to lose money. The only agenda they have is getting to the truth. Lets not forget that if scientists had of been taken seriously from the start, overfishing would not even be an issue.
Then you would be concentrating on finding what the issue with stocks disappearing or migrating. And the answer would be climate change. After that is solved (and it never will be as the damage had put us into an unrecoverable nosedive) you can then start looking at other issues, predation pressure, lack of food, pollution etc etc.

What also p155es me off is that you seem to want to ignore research, in favour of promoting your own 1 sided view that its overfishing and overfishing only.
So whats your issue? Do you feel scientists arent taking overfishing seriously enough? Do you feel they are concentrating on other issues more than overfishing?
Then do some reading. Immerse yourself in the huge amounts of research, education, and arguements science as a whole have with governments, regulators etc etc.
What you are told in the mainstream, away from the scientific world is a fraction of what is actually being researched and argued on our end.
And most of it has been picked over by non scientists who either dont grasp what they are reading, so under play the issues, or cherry pick what suits them.

Last time i checked, having a planet suitable for human habitation is more important than being able to walk to a fishmonger and buy a mackerel for dinner when you can eat literally anything else instead.
 

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While we are on the topic of 'research'.. you might like to do some on the history of Cornish Mackerel/Scottish commercials.. & you are still making huge assumptions on my views which in itself is not very scientific.
 

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While we are on the topic of 'research'.. you might like to do some on the history of Cornish Mackerel/Scottish commercials.. & you are still making huge assumptions on my views which in itself is not very scientific.
So, you would like me to research and read, to be able to prove overfishing exists. Something that i never once stated doesnt exist, or that i dont beleive is a factor in stock decline? Or that i dispute what scientists say about it? And your point is what exactly? U must have missed something. Ive been very clear that it is a factor.
 

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So, you would like me to research and read, to be able to prove overfishing exists. Something that i never once stated doesnt exist, or that i dont beleive is a factor in stock decline? Or that i dispute what scientists say about it? And your point is what exactly? U must have missed something. Ive been very clear that it is a factor.
It was probably the part where you said that climate change was the reason and not over fishing.... Just saying that's probably where everyone got that idea from
 

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It was probably the part where you said that climate change was the reason and not over fishing.... Just saying that's probably where everyone got that idea from
I didnt say that. I said it was nuanced and there was more to the answer than just overfishing. Quote me, if you think you are right.

Just like I never claimed to know what Wayne's views are, which he himself has assumed I claimed ( not actually evidence-based), and again issued as fact, wrongly, based on the best fit of his argument.
An argument that much like his overfishing theory, only uses information he deems worthy to further his cause. Sod the 90% of other factors. Science or factual analysis stops being relevant or meaningful when his argument can be given weight. Delving deeper into the science only shows the shallowness of his understanding, or willful ignorance to the other factors.
 

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I sure I saw somewhere on the forum links to the news reports of the arrival of specific boats and their capacities. I think even from a position of general scientific ignorance I/we/he could be forgiven for thinking they are more likely to be to blame for the situation the original poster described than climate change related fish migration, simply because of the speed of change.

My experience was that the change was immediate. Admittedly I've only been boat fishing 6 years but for me at least it's just this year. Prior to that here on the North East coast I had to take steps to try to not catch mackerel from June to early September as such was there abundance I couldn't get through them to fish the bottom.

As a layman and someone who never progressed beyond GCSE science it's also difficult to understand how a fractional rise in the temperature of the waters of the North East would impact our mackerel visitors and not perhaps even increase them when our sea temperature here is maybe 4 to 5c colder than the south of England
 

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Of course sucking fish out of an area will cause that area to not have fish but only for a time. Fish in genwral arent static and that is even more relevent in the case of migratory species such as mackerel who are constantly moving. As another poster has stated nature abhors a vacuum. Also known as source-sink dynamics. Its the idea that if quality of an area degrades animals will leave the area due to less animals being able to be supported. When an area is better in quality you will naturally see a movement towards an area which can hold and sustain a larger volume of said animal.
Think benefits of crowded city living vs fresh air and open fields of the countryside.

There are many reasons climate change affects an individual.
In the case of mackerel, they are fast swimming predatory warm bloodied fish that, much like tuna can cook (for better want of a word) themselves through over exertion and stress.
Their muscles need a high level of dissolved oxygen in the water to enable them to function properly. A tiny increase in temperature has a substantial impact on dissolved oxygen. Colder waters hold more diasolved oxygen than warmer.
Then when you think that their foodscources are dependent on algal blooms and phytoplankton for their own food, which is then completely dependant on specific levels of oxygen and nutrients (which are also higher in colder waters than warmer) then you start to understand.
There are of course many many other reasons on top of this all linked to climate change, such as nitrate, suplhur release, sequestered gases in the sediment, and how a tiny change in temperature knocks things around such as the gulf stream. And then you have the natural cyclic natyre of animals to deal with.

Fish are funnt things and will only breed when the individual deems the conditions to be right. They can skip breeding in order to grow bigger and stronger or be in better condition. They can also do so due to stress. So some years a large quantity of a population may not reproduce and other years they may be at it like rabbits. This then translates to more juveniles in certain years than others. This cycle has also been knocked around due to fluctuating environmental conditions causing more skip spawning than in previous years.

My gripe however isnt with wayne beleiving its overfishing and not climate change. Its with someone effectively trying to minimise important scientific evidence for what is a complex situation made uo of many things, in favour of their own opinion, and using scientific evidence to do so, in a wrong and misleading way.
You cant say scientists are talking sh1t3 and then try and use science in a very narrow visioned way to make your point.
Its people that do that, that cause people to think scientists are talking sh1t3.
And the majoritt of time the people who do that are trying to pull the wool over everyones eyes for political or monitary gain.
Ita a slippery slope. And with his somewhat celebrity status in the fishing world ai dont think it advances conservation in any way. You just end up with people allowing other issues to slide whilst focusing kn one that is already very heavily managed and monitored.... unfortunately managed by politicians who will only listen to select scientific advice that suits themselves.
 

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Lady Half Pint I'd advise that you should never hang out with people who believe in aromatherapy, homeopathy and astrology

upload_2020-8-3_10-13-54.jpeg
 

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I sure I saw somewhere on the forum links to the news reports of the arrival of specific boats and their capacities. I think even from a position of general scientific ignorance I/we/he could be forgiven for thinking they are more likely to be to blame for the situation the original poster described than climate change related fish migration, simply because of the speed of change.

My experience was that the change was immediate. Admittedly I've only been boat fishing 6 years but for me at least it's just this year. Prior to that here on the North East coast I had to take steps to try to not catch mackerel from June to early September as such was there abundance I couldn't get through them to fish the bottom.

As a layman and someone who never progressed beyond GCSE science it's also difficult to understand how a fractional rise in the temperature of the waters of the North East would impact our mackerel visitors and not perhaps even increase them when our sea temperature here is maybe 4 to 5c colder than the south of England
Perhaps the mackerel traveling to your area do not pass through the English Channel any more because of the increase of water temperature.

"Some western stock mackerel, predominantly small individuals, also enter the North Sea through the English Channel." Full document here
https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/marine/marine-environment/species/fish/pelagic/mackerel

Mackerel moving North.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiC8NvW74PrAhVzQkEAHeGECw8QFjAAegQIBBAB&url=https://www.climatechangepost.com/news/2017/10/9/mackerel-migrating-north-first-climate-change-rela/pdf/&usg=AOvVaw1-05G_JDFwboeVIseVB7gQ
 

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Fished oxwhich bay yesterday And had about 60/70 but in about 4 hours between 3 of us a few years ago that would of been 200/300 easy what’s happening to them
:) I've just bought 2 fresh, day old mackeral, £7.80, for dinner, dearest I've ever bought, will use heads for bait tonight or tomorrow, at that price 2 double figure bass at least. Now it won't be catch and release, it'll be catch and feed the neighbours. :)
 

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Hi
I’ve watched this thread carefully
I am concerned at the lack of mackerel in our area and from what I can glean nationally
But reading lady half pints rambling I’ve missed 2 weather windows and grown a beard
 

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:) I've just bought 2 fresh, day old mackeral, £7.80, for dinner, dearest I've ever bought, will use heads for bait tonight or tomorrow, at that price 2 double figure bass at least. Now it won't be catch and release, it'll be catch and feed the neighbours. :)
£7.80!!!! Hooray, at that price I can tell the OH that its cost effective to run the boat :wink::wink:
 

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Perhaps the mackerel traveling to your area do not pass through the English Channel any more because of the increase of water temperature.

"Some western stock mackerel, predominantly small individuals, also enter the North Sea through the English Channel." Full document here
"North Sea mackerel overwinter in the deep water, to the east and north of Shetland and on the edge of the Norwegian Deep."
 

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Climate change, overfishing, pollution, greater demand to feed more mouths of the ever expanding human population to my mind are all factors that are contributing to the demise of not just the seas fish population but also land base animal and plant life. Unless Covid has a much better stab at thinning out our numbers this winter then I'm not expect any improvements for the foreseeable. On that cheerful note, have a good evening :whistling:
 

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I made mine into hot smoked mackerel, some in the freezer, the minority was shared with friends as pate, at our BBQ. I love the return burp , it's like a good friend giving you a hug.
Need to get some herring soon but it will probably have to wait until next year...Mmmmm!
 

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